What is a long range forecast?
What is a long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts.
How reliable are the Met Office weather forecasts?
The Met Office has a good track record in advising on any significant risk of severe weather in this period. The 6-15 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather.
What is the UK medium-range outlook?
The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the forecaster written forecasts. The regional 3-5 day text forecasts provide a general picture of the weather on a day-by-day basis, with the main regional variations identified.
What does the extended-range weather forecast cover?
It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures. Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast.
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Is it possible to forecast the weather in Great Britain?
Forecasting the weather more than a few days ahead in Great Britain is very difficult. Consistently accurate long rang forecasts are not possible with current technology. You can use this page to try and identify trends. For example, are the summer months showing long settled spells or the winter months cold ones.
Will December be a wetter than average winter in the UK?
Overall there is fairly high confidence (about 70-80% chance) of a large majority of the UK having a wetter than average winter. December will start off wetter than average in the east and drier than average in the west, but some changes of pattern are expected later in the month.
What was the weather like in the winter of 2016/17?
The winter of 2016/17 saw an anticyclonic December and January over the south of the UK with temperatures a little above average in December 2016 and a little below in January 2017, but it was mild and westerly-dominated in the north, and February 2017 was a mild month despite a rather feeble easterly in the second week.
