What is the current status of ENSO?

What is the current status of ENSO?

CURRENT STATUS: La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern—had a firm grip on the tropical Pacific in November. There’s a 95 percent chance it will last through Northern Hemisphere winter.

Is Enso increasing?

ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5.

Is 2022 an El Nino year?

The ECMWF extended seasonal forecast from August actually shows the developing warm phase (El Nino) during Summer 2022.

How long is La Nina expected to last?

They occur in a cycle that ranges from two to eight years. The former is slightly more frequent. Events usually last nine to 12 months but some, particularly La Ninas, can linger for two years in a row. Australia has experienced 18 La Nina events since 1900 and 12 have coincided with flooding in eastern states.

Are we in an El Nino year 2021?

After an extended period of ENSO-Neutral conditions during the middle of 2021 (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña were occurring), observations of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and atmosphere indicate that La Niña conditions developed during September-October 2021.

What is the ENSO prediction for the rest of the year?

The forecaster consensus anticipates a transition to ENSO-neutral sometime during the Northern Hemisphere spring, with chances for La Niña declining below 50% after March-May 2022.

Is 2021 an El Niño or La Niña year?

La Niña conditions have officially developed and are expected to remain in place through the entirety of winter 2021-2022. La Niña means we’re in the negative phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short.

Will ENSO be affected by climate change?

Historically, we know that the impacts of major ENSO events can be severe and we now know that climate change can significantly intensify those impacts. We also have experienced a series of extreme El Niño and La Niña events in recent decades, including the first extreme El Niño of the 21st century in 2015-16.

Is 2021 going to be a cold winter Australia?

2021 has been another warm year for Australia with most regions recording maximum temperatures above the long-term average. The warm trend will continue into the SWS with maximum temperatures from October 2021 to April 2022 likely to remain above average for most of Australia.

Is La Nina 2021?

La Niña continues as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter, and forecasters are confident that it will hang around through the rest of the winter. This La Niña, the second in two years, will likely transition to ENSO-neutral sometime in the spring.

What is ENSO and what are its phases?

Though ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states, or phases, it can be in. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum.

What is the origin of the term “ENSO”?

However, he did not recognize that it was linked to changes in the Pacific Ocean or El Niño. It wasn’t until the late 1960s that Jacob Bjerknes and others realized that the changes in the ocean and the atmosphere were connected and the hybrid term “ENSO” was born.

What is ENSO and La Niña?

It wasn’t until the late 1960s that Jacob Bjerknes and others realized that the changes in the ocean and the atmosphere were connected and the hybrid term “ENSO” was born. It wasn’t until the 1980s or later that the terms La Niña and Neutral gained prominence.

Is enenso-neutral weather possible in 2021?

ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer and into the fall (51% chance for the August-October season), with La Niña potentially emerging during the September-November season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (66% chance during November-January).*